YTFX Siganls

  USD/CHF
  USD/CHF (1H Chart):
  Sideway move with probability to push up.
  Long @ 0.90286
  T.P @ 0.90604
  S.L @ 0.90158
  欧元兑美元
  AUD/JPY
  AUD/JPY (1H Chart)
  Inching slowly higher
  Long @ 94.722
  T.P @ 95.068
  S.L @ 94.602
  欧元兑美元

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YTFX Siganls

NSDQ
NSDQ (1H Chart)
The trend is up, but small correction is expected.
Short @ 3314
T.P @ 3298
S.L @ 3321
  欧元兑美元
USD/CAD
USD/CAD (1H Chart):
Continuation of the move lower
Short @ 1.02928
T.P @ 1.02741
S.L @ 1.02993
欧元兑美元
  AUD/JAP
  AUD/JPY (30min. Chart)
  Aggressive trade after a small breakout
  Long @ 94.375
  T.P. @ 94.643
  S.L @ 94.311
  欧元兑美元

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US Dollar Weakens As Traders Focus On The FOMC Meeting

Economic analysts are now trying to assess the damage to the US economy due to the prolonged government shutdown. The U.S. dollar tumbled, U.S. Treasury prices rallied and gold shot higher after lawmakers reached a last-minute deal to avoid a U.S. debt default, as investors anticipated that lingering uncertainty in Washington would push back the Federal Reserve’s plans to wind down stimulus efforts. The 11th-hour deal struck late Wednesday in Congress will reopen the government, but investor relief turned to concern about the 16-day fight’s toll on the world’s largest economy. The US dollar fell below the 80 price level on Thursday and is flat this morning trading at 79.80. The euro was a big gainer on the back of the US dollar climbing to trade at 1.3685 setting a recent high. The Euro gained around 1 percent yesterday taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with positive data from the region supported an upside in the currency. Euro Zone’s Current Account rose to 17.4 billion euros in August from 15.5 billion euros in July. By mid-afternoon on Thursday after President Obama had signed the new budget and debt ceiling agreements markets began to shift to risk on sentiment and look at the next FOMC move. The dollar fetched ¥97.84, down from ¥98.76. The Aussie dollar changed hands at $0.9630 from $0.9552. The British pound rose to $1.6159 from $1.5948, and the dollar fell to 0.9023 Swiss francs from 0.9134 franc. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its next policy meeting later this month on Oct. 29-30.

US Unemployment Claims declined by 15,000 to 358,000 for the week ending on 11th October 2013 as against a rise of 373,000 a week ago. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slipped by 2.5 points to 19.8-mark in October from 22.3-level in September. The UK Pound appreciated by around 1.35 percent in the yesterday’s trading session on the back of favorable retail sales data from the region. Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the Pound. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.6172 and closed at 1.6164 on Thursday. UK’s Retail Sales gained 0.6 percent in September as compared to a decline of 0.8 percent in August.

This morning Asian currencies are responding to stronger than expected Chinese data. This morning releases showed that industrial production and GDP met expectations with GDP printing at 7.8%. The only negative was a drop in retail sales below forecast, which weighs heavily on the Aussie and the kiwi as they depend on their trade with China. China is the leading importer of dairy products from New Zealand. The NZD is trading at 0.8458 easing from Thursdays rally by 28 points while the Aussie dipped to 0.9621. While the Japanese yen is trading down by 14 points against the US dollar as traders move away from safe haven trades in the hopes of high risk profits.

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FXEmpire Energy Speculators Look Forward To EIA Releases Scheduled For Next Week

Crude oil traders are now anticipating the release of inventory numbers on October 23rd. With the reopening of the US government after lawmakers passed a temporary budget and increased the debt ceiling until early 2014 traders are eagerly awaiting long delayed data. Crude oil is trading at 100.79 gaining 12 cents while Brent oil added 33 points to trade at 109.31. Crude oil prices closed lower on Thursday, weighed by profit booking as WTI and Brent gained 1.07% and 0.82%, respectively, in the previous trading session after US lawmakers reached an agreement to end the partial government shutdown and extend the debt-limit. Meanwhile, an increase in US crude stockpiles by 5.94 mn barrels last week as reported by American Petroleum Institute yesterday weighed on crude oil prices. Energy speculators are now attempting to determine the effects on demand of the US government shutdown. The 11th-hour deal struck late Wednesday in Congress will reopen the government, but investor relief turned to concern about the 16-day fight’s toll on the world’s largest economy. Many analysts have pushed back their expectations for a reduction in Fed bond buying—once viewed as certain to begin in September—until the first quarter of 2014. In addition, investors remain wary that U.S. lawmakers will go through a similar political standoff in early 2014, further muddying the growth outlook.

Crude oil settled at their lowest level in more than three months on Thursday as stockpiles in the Cushing, Oklahoma, and oil hub began to reverse a months-long decline, and as signs of progress in talks over Iran’s nuclear program also pressured prices. Forty years after an Arab oil embargo throttled the U.S. economy, surging North American energy production has brought the United States closer to a long-dreamed “energy independence” that is reshaping its goals and role in the Middle East.

Major oil and gas producers Russia and North America are spending billions of dollars on pipelines and port facilities to supply energy to Asia, intent on grabbing a bigger share of the world’s fastest growing fuel market from Middle East suppliers. China’s economy expanded 7.8 per cent year-on-year in July-September, snapping two quarters of slowing growth in the world’s top energy consuming nation. The price support for oil right now is probably due to the stronger Chinese growth data. Retail sales missed the mark by a bit but industrial production met expectations along with GDP.

The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB benchmark, 12 of 19 commodities fell. The index lost 0.41 percent, with losses in energy, industrial metals, and some agricultural markets. Brent crude oil fell 1.7 percent to a one-week low. Retail gasoline prices edged up slightly but continue to remain much lower than this time last year. AAA on Thursday reported the average price at the pump increased 1 cent to $3.12 per gallon. That’s 40 cents less per gallon than what drivers were paying on Oct. 17, 2012. Natural gas is trading at 3.762 after tumbling almost 10 cents as traders sold off to book profits ahead of next week’s inventory release by the EIA along with a shift in weather forecasts, which put temperature back on seasonal averages.

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FXTG Daily Technical Levels – FindYourFX.com

Dow Jones (Dec 13) intraday: further upside.
Pivot: 15150
Our preference: LONG positions @ 15268 with 15395 & 15470 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 15150 will call for a slide towards 15055 & 14950.
Comment: the RSI broke above a bearish trend line.

NZD/USD intraday: towards 0.858.
Pivot: 0.841
Our preference: Long positions above 0.841 with targets @ 0.8555 & 0.858 in extension.
  Alternative scenario: Below 0.841 look for further downside with 0.834 & 0.8305 as targets.
  Comment: the RSI broke above a declining trend line.
  
  GOLD (Spot) intraday: further advance.
  Pivot: 1287.00
  Our preference: LONG positions above 1287 with targets @ 1329 & 1350.
  Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1287 will call for 1270 & 1252.
  Comment: the break above 1287 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1329.
  
  EUR/USD intraday: further advance.
  Pivot: 1.361
  Our preference: Long positions above 1.361 with targets @ 1.371 & 1.373 in extension.
  Alternative scenario: Below 1.361 look for further downside with 1.358 & 1.3535 as targets.
  Comment: the pair has broken above a bearish channel resistance and is expected to gain further ground.
  
  AUD/USD intraday: bullish bias above 0.955.
  Pivot: 0.955
  Our preference: Long positions above 0.955 with targets @ 0.965 & 0.968 in extension.
  Alternative scenario: Below 0.955 look for further downside with 0.9505 & 0.945 as targets.
  Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
  
  GBP/USD intraday: further advance.
  Pivot: 1.6055
  Our preference: Long positions above 1.6055 with targets @ 1.619 & 1.624 in extension.
  Alternative scenario: Below 1.6055 look for further downside with 1.598 & 1.5935 as targets.
  Comment: the pair has broken above its Broadening Formation resistance and is expected to gain further ground.
  
  ASX 200 (Dec 13) intraday: further advance.
  Pivot: 5235
  Our preference: Long positions above 5235 with targets @ 5320 & 5335 in extension.
  Alternative scenario: Below 5235 look for further downside with 5205 & 5175 as targets.
  Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.
  
  Risk Warning
  Trading foreign currencies is a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for educated and experienced investors. However, before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
  There is considerable exposure to risk in any foreign exchange transaction. Any transaction involving currencies involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price or liquidity of a currency.
  Moreover, the leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses. Investors may lower their exposure to risk by employing risk-reducing strategies such as ‘stop-loss’ or ‘limit’ orders.
  Since the possibility of losing your entire cash balance does exist, speculation in the Forex market should only be conducted with risk capital you can afford to lose which will not dramatically impact your lifestyle. Forex Systems is compensated through a portion of the bid/ask spread.

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IronFX Today Markets Big Picture 2013-10-16 FindYourFx.com

THE BIG PICTURE
US debt talks in disarray, but not USD With less than 48 hours left to go before the US runs out of money, the government is still unable to come to any agreement on how to avert default. “Debt Talks in Disarray as House Balks,” is the headline in the New York Times. The Senate is working on a plan, but the House Republicans couldn’t even agree on a deal that would be unacceptable to the Democrats and President Obama, much less one that would pass. “The House’s hard-core conservatives and some more pragmatic Republicans were nearing open revolt,” according to the Times. Short-term T-bill rates soared as the market prepared for a default. Yesterday’s auction of 3- and 6-month bills drew extremely weak demand as Fitch Ratings put the US on “rating watch negative” over its AAA rating, meaning it could decide to downgrade the US sometime before the end of next March. (S&P has already downgraded the US.) Yet oddly enough, the dollar was higher against almost all G10 currencies and the majority of EM currencies that we follow, too. To add to the puzzle, the Empire State manufacturing survey fell -4.8 points to the lowest level since May, and Dallas Fed President Fisher said that it was “too tender a moment” to trim QE this month. But with the debt ceiling now just being pushed out to next February, that comment implies the Fed might not even be able to begin tapering before next March.
Much of the dollar’s gains occurred yesterday following the better-than-expected ZEW survey, which boosted thoughts of global growth and caused an outflow out of CHF. It was noticeable though that the drama in Washington failed to erode those gains entirely. That raises an interesting point: in case the US does default, will the dollar be the beneficiary? That is, while a US default certainly won’t be good for the US, it won’t be good for any other country, either. Swiss banks for example hold huge amounts of US bonds (equivalent to some 20% of Swiss GDP). So in case of financial Armageddon, where do you hide? If we look at the 2008 financial collapse, the US turned out to be the safe haven of last resort even though the US was also the source of the problems. The lack of any disruption to the long end of the US bond market – in contrast to the gyrations in the T-bill market – suggest that even in case of a default, the US Treasury market could still be the global bolt hole. That means the dollar could actually benefit (in the short term, at least) if the US government proves incapable of reaching an agreement today.
Today’s Treasury auction will be a big focus of interest, especially the $20bn in one-month T-bills. Will anyone want to buy bills that might not be redeemed on schedule? Also in the US, the National Association of Homebuilders’ housing market index is expected to have fallen 1 point to 57 in October, which would still be a relatively high level. Also, the Fed releases the Beige Book. Here in Europe, the focus of attention today will be on the UK employment data for August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.7%, while the jobless claims change for September is expected to fall by -25.0k from -32.6 the previous month and -36.30 in July. The figure will be closely watched as the Bank of England has made a decline in unemployment to 7.0% a prerequisite for raising interest rates. Later in the day, the final figure for the Eurozone CPI for September is coming out which no change is expected (1.1% yoy). As for speakers, ECB President Draghi speaks in Frankfurt while ECB’s Mersch speaks in Luxembourg.

THE MARKET
EUR/USD

EUR/USD moved lower, breaking once more below the 1.3564 barrier. The pair seems to consolidate in a symmetrical triangle formation. A clear break outside the pattern should enforce the pair’s new directional movement.. The picture is mixed since our oscillators indicate decreasing momentum, but the 50-period moving average remains above the 200- period moving average. As a result, I consider the bias of the pair to be neutral, until the clear escape of the triangle occurs.
Support: 1.3461 (S1), 1.3400 (S2), 1.3323 (S3)
Resistance: 1.3564 (R1), 1.3644 (R2), 1.3706 (R3).

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IronFX Today Markets Big Picture 2013-10-15 FindYourFx.com

THE BIG PICTURE
The US Senate Monday night neared the completion of a bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling and end the government shutdown. The plan reportedly would lift the debt limit through Feb. 7, finance the government through Jan. 15 and conclude formal discussions on a long-term tax and spending plan no later than Dec. 13. But it was already clear that the most conservative Republican members of the House of Representatives were not going to agree to the bill. Given their opposition, the leadership of the House of Representatives might not even bring the bill up for a vote, because so far they have pledged not to bring to a vote any bill that cannot be passed with a Republican majority. If they do decide to bring it to a vote and pass it with the support of the Democrats, it could be a defining moment in US politics that splits the Republican Party.
As for the FX market, the reaction was as one might expect: the safe-haven currencies, JPY and CHF, weakened vs USD while the high-beta currencies gained, AUD most of all followed by NZD, NOK and CAD. EUR, GBP and SEK were largely stable. Gold and silver were slightly higher than they were yesterday morning at this time, but well off their late European highs, which were hit when it looked doubtful whether an agreement could be reached. Although the Senate is showing some progress, it’s by no means guaranteed that this plan gets through the recalcitrant House and hence the “risk on” trade remains risky. And even if the bill does eventually succeed, the market is just getting set up for a repeat showdown next January/February. I think the T-bill market is likely to retain a risk premium and hence the dollar is likely to remain under a cloud until then, while the safe haven currencies are likely to remain stronger than they would otherwise have been.
The focus in Europe will be on the ZEW survey for October. The current situation index is expected to rise to 31.3 from 30.6 in October, while the expectations index is expected to remain unchanged at 49.6. Last month the ZEW index was better than expected but it had no lasting impact on EUR/USD. In the UK, CPI as well as PPI for September will be released. CPI is expected to be slightly lower on a mom basis (0.3% mom from 0.4% mom), which would bring the yoy rate down slightly to 2.6% from 2.7%. This is still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target but certainly the direction is correct. The Output PPI is forecast to be up a modest 0.1% mom, the same rise as in August. In the US, Empire manufacturing for October is expected to rise slightly to 7.00 from 6.29, but who knows if anyone cares about US indicators for the time being. As for speakers, European Union finance ministers meet in Luxemburg for an EcoFin meeting. BoE’s Weale speaks at UK Parliament Treasury Committee while ECB’s Praet speaks in Munich. Finally, New York Fed President Dudley will be speaking at a Bank of Mexico conference in Mexico, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will address the same conference by video.

THE MARKET
EUR/USD

EUR/USD managed to break above the upper boundary of the short term purple channel during yesterday’s European day, but started moving lower as New York trading got under way and is currently testing the boundary as a support. A rebound at that level would probably extend the movement towards the short-term highs at 1.3644 (R2). However, our oscillators remain below their trend lines, with RSI testing its trend line and moving lower. A rebound should be accompanied with the break of the oscillators above their trend lines to confirm the upward trend. Without that confirmation, we remain neutral on the direction.
Support: 1.3461 (S1), 1.3400 (S2), 1.3324 (S3)
Resistance: 1.3564 (R1), 1.3644 (R2), 1.3706 (R3).

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FXEmpire Gold and Metals At The Mercy Of Washington Politics

Gold recovered in after-hours trading as US politicians close meetings for the day on a positive note. Lawmakers from both sides of the bench are all saying that progress has been made and a final deal to avert a government default and to reopen government agencies is nearing and the US will avoid a default. Gold December 2013 fell 0.3% to 1,273.2 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, silver futures slid 0.7% to USD 21.19 per troy ounce. Gold slipped for a fifth session out of seven on Wednesday as safe-haven bids slowed on hopes U.S. lawmakers would hash out a last-minute agreement to raise the debt ceiling before a Thursday deadline.
Fitch Ratings warned it could cut the sovereign credit rating of the United States from AAA, citing the political brinkmanship over raising the debt ceiling. While “Reckless” U.S. fiscal policy will likely force the Federal Reserve to stand pat on monetary policy this month, said Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher in a speech late last evening.

Gold premiums in India, the world’s biggest buyer of the precious metal, hit a record $100 an ounce, about 8 percent over London prices, on a shortage of supplies to meet festival demand, traders said on Tuesday. Chinese gold output rose 8.2% to 270.167 tons from January to August 2013, year over year, according to data from the China Gold Association. The association also said that August production was down slightly to 37.978 tons from 39.367 tons in July. China is the world’s largest gold producer for the 6th year in a row and is on track to soon overtake India as the top consumer. In 2012, Chinese gold consumption rose 9.35% to 832 tons. And in the first half of 2013, consumption jumped a remarkable 54% year over year. The boost in demand has been credited in large part to Chinese weddings, which account for roughly 50% of all Chinese domestic bullion consumption. Chinese and Indian customs is to give items of gold for wedding and personal holding of gold jewelry as a sign of wealth.

Unfortunately for gold investors, ETF’s are selling off the precious metal holding at a record pace which continues to weigh on the value of gold. Some investors buy gold as a hedge against economic turmoil, and prices have generally pointed lower in recent weeks as investors bet that politicians would avert a breach of the U.S. borrowing limit. But gold prices pushed higher in after-hours trade following reports that a Senate effort to craft a bipartisan plan had stalled. Futures snapped as high as $1,287.70 an ounce, a rise of 0.9%, before paring those gains. Thursday is the deadline set by the Treasury Department to raise the federal borrowing limit. The markets are still unsure if there is an actual movement forward or backward (on the shutdown),” a CME Group analyst wrote. “However, if it appears that the U.S. is likely to encounter a default, gold prices might return to a safe-haven status.”

In other metals trading, December high-grade copper lost about one cent to $3.30 a pound. January platinum climbed $3.10, or 0.2%, to $1,386.50 an ounce and December palladium added $1.65, or 0.2%, to $707.95 an ounce

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FXEmpire Political Theatrics Keep Forex Traders Guessing As Fitch Warns The US

The antic in Washington DC continue to be market focus there has been little else happening elsewhere giving US politics the perfect timing to be in the global spot light. With the Middle East turned down the temperature to a simmer and European politics and financial crisis taking a break from the headlines speculator remain focused on the theatrics playing out in the US capitol where politicians are doing their best to be favorable headlines and pushing the parties political agenda while everyone knows in the end there will be compromise. The “Tea Party” members which pushes the government in to crisis mode have long been pushed to be background as Democratic and Republic leaders fight it out as President Obama serves are a referee with his own agenda. The US dollar which tumbled to trade under the 80 level last week has been making a steady recovery as a deal come closer. The DX is trading in the green this morning at 80.64 up by 5 pips as lawmakers indicated that they were making headway. While the two sides appeared to fall short of clinching a deal late Tuesday, with the Senate adjourning at 10:08 p.m. local time, reports said Reid and McConnell were close to a deal on a Senate bill that, if passed, would then go to the Republican-led House of Representatives. The Senate was slated to reconvene at noon Wednesday. The abrupt decision to cancel voting on the House plan was a clear sign Republicans didn’t have the votes to approve the bill, which would have opened the government through Dec. 15. The debt limit would have been extended to Feb. 7. Late yesterday Fitch Ratings issued a downgrade watch for US debt. The Fitch warning comes as negotiations on competing plans to raise the U.S.’s borrowing limit and fully reopen the federal government continue. The Treasury Department, which has used extraordinary steps to continue paying its bills for roughly two weeks, says it will exhaust those powers on Thursday.

The recovery of the greenback is weighing on its crosses. The pound tumbled to 1.5970 down by 27 pips ahead of today’s labor figures. The GBP has unfortunately seen two weeks of lackluster economic data, which is offsetting earlier positive reports. PMI climbed to recent highs in all fronts but industrial product took a tumble last week. Traders are also eager to see retail sales number due on Thursday.

News from Europe has been quiet with Greece and Italy dealing with their new budgets, but overall everything remains in neutral. The euro is trading at 1.3512 down 13 points today. Yesterday, confidence indicators for the eurozone were poor but the ZEW sentiment in Germany soared above expectations giving a bit of a bump to the shared currency. There is little of consequence on the calendar today as the ECB deals with the final approval of a banking supervisor which got the final thumbs up yesterday.

Tasmanian currencies were trading in the green this morning as both New Zealand and Australia seem to think that their central banks will soon be raising interest rates. The kiwi is trading at 0.8392 and the Aussie at 0.9525. The Japanese yen declined against the strong US dollar to trade at 98.54.

Today’s calendar is just about bare with CPI numbers in the Eurozone and not much else to distract from US politics.

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IronFX Intraday Technical Analysis 2013-10-15- FindYourFX.com

USD/CHF

The dollar held steady or gained against most of its G10 counterparts during the European morning as the US Senate leaders worked out a deal to finance the US government. Stock prices were generally higher and S&P 500 index futures were up slightly. CHF experienced the biggest losses among the G10 currencies in this more confident environment, while gold and silver plunged.
USD managed to recovered the losses of the last two days vs EUR despite the rise in German ZEW survey expectations for October, which came much better than expected (52.8 vs expected 49.6). EUR/USD moved sharply lower below 1.3500, recording a 3-day low.
AUD/USD moved steadily higher during the Asian session to nearly a 4-month high after the release of minutes by the Reserve Bank of Australia that showed that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates further, saying that the effect of previous rate cuts “had further to run.” However, the pair fell during the European morning, giving back some of its early profits.
USD/CHF has been moving in an uptrend since the 3rd of October and surge during the last hours’ trading activity, reaching new short term highs. During the early European afternoon, the rate is trading above the 0.9147 (S1) barrier, this morning’s resistance level. If the bullish bias continues, the action should drive towards the next hurdle at 0.9169 (R1). The MACD oscillator lies above its zero line and during the rally crossed above its trigger, confirming the enthusiasm of the longs. On the other hand, the RSI entered its overbought zone and as a result a pullback during the day should not be ruled out. On the longer time frame (4-hour chart), the price rebounded from the neckline of an inverse head and shoulder formation, increasing the probabilities for the continuation of the uptrend.
Support: 0.9147 (S1), 0.9130 (S2), 0.9114 (S3)
Resistance: 0..9169 (R1), 0.9201 (R2), 0.9227 (R3)

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