The dawn of Q3: Q3 will kick-off with the quarterly Tankan survey. The Q1 survey disappointed expectations and caused an equity sell-off in Japan that day. The Nikkei lost more than 2% to close near the lows for the day, triggering a significant down move on USD/JPY in the process. This time around, the market is forecasting significant improvements relative to the previous quarter on top of the less-than-expected improvements experienced the previous quarter. The Tankan large manufacturers index is forecast to return to positive territory, showing the highest reading since Q1 2011, with the non-manufacturing business confidence reading expected to come in at the highest level since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis.
With the correlation between Japanese equity indices and the USD/JPY being at the highest level this year, a Tankan survey surprise is bound to impact Japanese equities with knock-on effects on USD/JPY. The Nikkei today broke out from its developing pennant formation, lying close to its upper Bollinger band, with 50-day MA resistance at 13920 and significant overlapping Fibonacci levels at 14190. The Citigroup economic surprise index for Japan shows that many indicators have been beating expectations recently, although of course there is no guarantee that this will hold for all indicators.
USD/JPY moved marginally higher since this morning testing significant resistance at 99..15, which sees the 50-day MA, with 99.35 possibly acting as a further weak level. More volatility, however, is expected over the next few hours with the release of the Chicago PMI and the Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence index for June, with both metrics expected to come out strong but lower than in May. Significant resistance above the 99.15 – 99.35 area comes at 99.90, just below the 100 mark, with further resistance thereafter at 100.35 and 100.80. Trendline and Fibonacci support is seen at 97.90 with further support at 97.05.
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